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System of Indicators of Eurasian Integration II

Vinokurov E.

This report presents the results of the study performed in 2014 as part of the EDB project “System of Indicators of Eurasian Integration” (SIEI). The study concerns the measurement and analysis of the long-term dynamics of integration processes in the post-Soviet space. It covers eleven CIS countries plus Georgia from 2009 to 2012 and it continues the 1999–2008 analysis that was carried out in 2009. 

The SIEI includes the analysis of two main aspects of regional economic integration, namely market integration and economic convergence. The first aspect is evaluated on the basis of six indices that measure integration in the fields of: trade, labour migration, electrical power engineering, agriculture, education and investments. The second aspect is evaluated on the basis of four indices of regional integration in the fields of: macroeconomics, monetary policy, fiscal policy and financial policy.

One of the main conclusions reached by the authors team is that integration in the post-Soviet space progresses at an uneven pace in its different areas, but the level of integration in the framework of main subregional groups in the CIS space has generally remained virtually unchanged for the last four years. That means that the permanent disintegration trend observed over two decades might have been reversed, but the qualitative breakthrough point has not been reached.

By the way, the findings of the research show that, judging by the overall level of integration with all the post-Soviet countries, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and Tajikistan have been the three leaders since 2008. Tajikistan, however, although the country was in the lead over the period of 2002-2008, demonstrated a lower level of integration in 2009-2012. At the same time, Georgia and Azerbaijan have improved their level of integration with the CIS region over the last four years. 

Based on indicators relative to the countries’ GDP and population size, the leaders in certain aspects of integration with the CIS region include Belarus (trade), Kyrgyzstan (power exchange), Tajikistan (labour migration and agriculture), and Turkmenistan (education).All the information about methodology and results of the research is available in analytical summary and full version of the report.

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